File:Dieoff.org.jpg

The Olduvai Theory: 1930-2030
Notes:

(1) 1930 => Industrial Civilization began when (ê) reached 30% of its peak value.

(2) 1979 => ê reached its peak value of 11.15 boe/c.

(3) 1999 => The end of cheap oil.

(4) 2000 => Start of the "Jerusalem Jihad".

(5) 2006 => Predicted peak of world oil production (Figure 1, this paper).

(6) 2008 => The OPEC crossover event (Figure 1).

(7) 2012 => Permanent blackouts occur worldwide.

(8) 2030 => Industrial Civilization ends when ê falls to its 1930 value.

(9) Observe that there are three intervals of decline in the Olduvai schema: slope, slide and cliff — each steeper than the previous.

(10) The small cartoons stress that electricity is the essential end-use energy for Industrial Civilization.

http://dieoff.org/page224.htm

Olduvai revisited 2008
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/3565